Solana (SOL/USD) has closed the first Sunday of October at $173, a weekly increase of over 25%. Currently the token of Solana Network, the 6th biggest coin by marketcap, is trading just a touch below $170 as the week begins. It happened to only be about a day or more like a few 4-hr candle closes after my last week’s Solana insight was posted on cryptodaily.co.uk when SOL decided it had enough of the declining channel and made a significant move. From 29th Sep it took 4 days for the price action to rise up as high as $178 during the last day of the week (intraday high on Sunday 3rd Oct). Finally above the 50 MA by a solid margin of nearly $20, is the sky finally clear enough for the new cryptomarket ‘darling’ asset (up by 27-28% compared to between 10% and 11% in the green for ETH/USD and BTC/USD – week to week) to mount a fresh attack on the ATH? (current ATH @ $216 on 9th Sep 21)
PRICE IN NO MAN’S LAND?
As was mentioned in the very title of this article, an argument could possible be made thet the SOL’s price presently finds itself in a bit of a ‘NO MAN’S LAND’. By ‘no man’s land’ I simply mean that – in my humble opinion – the asset is still in its phase of price discovery- needless to add that farther volatility should naturally be expected and planned for accordingly. Truthfully, there was a cluster of resistance between $155 and $165 but Solana managed to break this and turn this area into support for the time being (on 1st Oct, when BTC/USD started pumping). What’s more, if Solana can establish itself above $165 for a period of let’s say two or three days going into this week, then a bull flag on the 4-hr will appear. By this point, the potential break-out of the pattern to the upside would take the price to the very important level of $192-$194. It is a key level for a few reasons at least: not only is it a crucial Fibonacci retracement/extension level, but also, and even more importantly, there should be no more serious resistance above the $193 mark (although there could be some around the psychological round number of $200).
Main thing to bear in mind when planning your potential trades is to keep an eye on the RSI this week as it’s been showing a bit of a bearish divergence (this may get nullified if we do get another spike in Bitcoin’s price, just like the one we witnessed on 1st Oct).
As far as the worst-case scenario, the US Stock Market’s Fear & Greed Index has signalled EXTREME FEAR (27/100) for weeks now, and while the same index for crypto is showing the NEUTRAL sentiment (54/100), it’s the former that should be monitored very closely at the moment. To put it simply, if the S&P 500 gets another bloody week (it closed September at -3.6%), it will likely affect BTC/USD and more so the altcoins. Currently it’s not the best time to be opening new positions, we have to first make sure that the traditional financial markets are able to ‘steady the ship’ and not go into a massive recession.
EXCITING TIMES AHEAD
You don’t need an expert to notice that there has been an influx of optimism into the cryptocurrency markets (BTC domination at 40.8% – investors’ confidence in altcoins has been intact) mainly due to the fact that traditionally months of October and November have been the most profitable months for crypto. If this turns out to be true once again then we will easily see the all-time-high levels broken again and again before this cycle ends (December peak still an option). The Solana Network seems to have fully recovered from the September’s outage now, and to finish this piece with a huge portion of good news- lets talk about the Greyscale’s $494M Digital Largecap Fund.
Reportedly, SOL has just been added to the Fund that had recently reduced its BTC assets by 5%. This is a huge vote of confidence from Greyscale and in layman’s terms it indicates the the whales see a huge potential for gains with SOL (SOL/USD). This is quite an exciting time for the Solana investors, but let us not get too pumped up just yet.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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